Cardinal Robert Prevost from the United States has been appointed as the new Pope, making him the first American elected to lead the Catholic Church.
In the betting aspect of the Papal conclave, nearly everyone overlooked Prevost before Thursday's activities.
The 133 cardinals responsible for electing the new pope held a morning session today but did not reach any conclusions. Dark smoke rose from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City, indicating that the cardinals remained in conclave.
Later today, white smoke billowed from the Vatican, signaling that a decision had been made.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin emerged as the leading betting favorite following the appearance of white smoke, with gamblers backing the Vatican diplomat, perceived as a figure balancing the progressive and conservative factions of the church.
Prevost Appeared Abruptly
Shortly after 1 pm EST, reports emerged that the voting result was surprising, and the American provost would be appointed as Pope. The prediction markets shifted significantly in his favor.
Kalshi assigned Prevost a 1% likelihood ahead of the conclave.
John Ewing from BetMGM in Ontario stated that Prevost's odds were at +5000 to become the next Pope. Nineteen percent of wagers (the highest) were placed on Parolin, while 58% of funds were on Luis Antonio Tagle. Fewer than 1% of the wagers at BetMGM were placed on Prevost to become Pope.
BetMGM was among the limited sportsbooks in Ontario that provided Pope election markets, whereas regulated sportsbooks in the US weren’t presenting this market.
First Pope from America in History
Prevost, aged 69 and hailing from Chicago, will be recognized as Pope Leo XIV. He dedicated a significant portion of his career to being a missionary in South America and later served as a bishop in Peru.
News coverage indicates that he aligns more with the progressive side of the spectrum and implies he will continue the reforms initiated by Pope Francis, who passed away on April 21.